Modeling the trend and seasonal components of the SARS-COV2 in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

Abstract

More than four months after the start of the pandemic that plagues the planet, there is an urgent need to project how the transmission of the new SARS-CoV-2 will develop in the upcoming months. Intending to model the behavior of SARS-CoV2 in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, the Observatorio Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (ONTIC) carried out statistical analysis to forecast based on the values of the time series of Covid-19 infections of communitarian origin, the Estimate Average of Community Contagions. These analyzes have shown that the unprecedented spread's dynamics of this pandemic will depend on seasonality, the finding of a vaccine, and other factors such as, for example, the eradication of origin of contagions of transnational or imported origin. Hence, using data that reflects the behavior of SARS-CoV2 during the first 120 days of the pandemic in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, we measure how these factors affect communitarian transmission. To do this, we built a mathematical model that allowed us to observe the behavior of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, projecting how recurrent outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will appear over the next 3 weeks, which are likely to occur after the first wave of the pandemic.