The Transmission Dynamics of Covid-19 from a Mathematical Perspective
Keywords:
Covid-19; pandemic; model; outbreak; Benford lawAbstract
The present work proposes a Mathematical model capable of reproducing the transmission dynamics of the new coronavirus (Covid-19) in human groups, from a system of differential equations. The total population was divided into three different types: susceptible, infected, and recovered. Parameters were developed using the least squared method, based on Johns Hopkins’ Covid-19 data, and were validated in four countries: China, the United States, Brazil and Venezuela. Simultaneously, the quality of the data was explored to detect any manipulation or alteration of the numbers of infections in these four countries, based on two computational methodologies used in forensic analysis of digital information. Finally, it will be possible to estimate that 597 cases of infection could occur in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, until June 22 of this year, based on the information analyzed up to April 20, heavily influenced by the detected break out.
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